BERLIN – A significant policy debate has erupted within the German federal government today, Saturday, October 18, 2025, centered on a contentious proposal to introduce a "draft lottery" system as part of broader efforts to bolster military recruitment for the Bundeswehr.
Recruitment Crisis Fuels Policy Rift
The controversy stems from urgent calls to increase troop numbers to deter what Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative CDU/CSU bloc perceives as escalating tensions between NATO and Russia, coupled with lingering doubts regarding future United States security commitments to Europe. Merz has publicly committed to building what he termed the continent's “strongest conventional army,” tasking Defence Minister Boris Pistorius with the critical mission of attracting new personnel.
Currently, the Bundeswehr has been relying on a volunteer drive, supported by extensive social media campaigns aimed at improving the armed forces' public image in a nation historically wary of military conscription. However, the conservative wing of the coalition has pushed for a more coercive measure: the inclusion of a potential “draft lottery” within the new military service legislation currently under deliberation in parliament.
Coalition Partners Clash Over Compulsion
This suggestion has immediately created a flashpoint with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), represented by Defence Minister Pistorius, who reportedly was not receptive to the conservative push for a lottery system. The flashpoint issue of reintroducing any form of military conscription has deeply unsettled the ruling coalition, exposing a significant ideological gap on national security policy.
While the draft legislation already championed by Minister Pistorius includes a mandatory fitness screening for all 18-year-old men starting next year, the move towards compulsory service via a lottery requires a separate parliamentary vote.
Expert Skepticism on Immediate Impact
International relations experts suggest that even if the policy were approved, its immediate practical impact might be limited. Rafael Loss, a fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, noted that establishing the necessary infrastructure for selecting and effectively training new recruits would require several years. He cautioned that rushing the process in the short term could inadvertently reduce overall combat readiness.
Geopolitical Context Driving Policy Shift
The underlying driver for this intense domestic policy discussion is the shifting geopolitical landscape. Chancellor Merz’s impetus for strengthening Germany's conventional military capacity is directly linked to concerns over heightened East-West friction. This policy push reflects a wider European trend of reassessing defense postures in light of evolving security threats and strategic uncertainties among major allies.
The debate over conscription is a microcosm of Germany’s larger challenge: balancing historical reservations about military involvement with the perceived necessity of robust defense capabilities in a volatile international environment. For now, the proposal for a draft lottery remains a divisive element in German politics, highlighting the difficulty in forging consensus on fundamental national security policy amidst international pressure.