The End of the Rajoelina Era
The impending inauguration of Colonel Randrianirina marks the definitive end of President Andry Rajoelina’s tenure, which itself began with a coup in 2009. The recent political crisis escalated following weeks of massive, youth-led demonstrations, often dubbed "Gen Z protests," which voiced widespread public anger over crippling poverty, chronic power and water shortages, and allegations of corruption and governance failures.
The final push against Rajoelina came when the nation's lawmakers voted overwhelmingly to impeach him. This impeachment followed Rajoelina’s flight from the island nation; reports from opposition officials, a military source, and a foreign diplomat suggested the deposed president departed aboard a French military aircraft over the weekend. While Rajoelina condemned the military takeover and refused to step down, the military's decisive action, bolstered by widespread defections within the security forces, effectively consolidated control.
Following the impeachment vote on Tuesday, Colonel Randrianirina announced that the military had assumed power and dissolved most state institutions, with the exception of the lower house of parliament, the National Assembly. Subsequently, officials from the High Constitutional Court reportedly invited Randrianirina to assume the role of head of state, citing Rajoelina’s inability to perform his duties due to his absence.
Randrianirina's Transition Plan and Timeline
Colonel Randrianirina has outlined a provisional roadmap for the nation’s governance, aiming to transition from military control to civilian rule. He stated that a military-led committee would govern for a transitional period, expected to last between 18 months and two years, before organizing new elections. He also mentioned the acceleration of appointing a new prime minister to quickly form a transitional government, emphasizing that the "crisis in the country does not last forever."
Crucially, Randrianirina confirmed that the constitution and the powers of the High Constitutional Court have been suspended. The proposed long-term plan includes holding a referendum to formulate a new constitution, though the exact details of this process remain somewhat opaque, contributing to international uncertainty. The military council has also pledged to hold a national dialogue aimed at drafting this new constitution before a potential referendum in 2027, according to some reports.
International Perspective and Global Impact
The political instability in Madagascar, a strategically important country in the Indian Ocean, garners significant global attention, particularly from former colonial power France and other international bodies. France has stated it is monitoring the evolving situation closely. In contrast, the U.S. State Department has condemned the coup and called for the protection of civilians and democratic institutions.
The African Union (AU) has also been closely tracking the developments, having called for an emergency meeting of its security council. Analysts and experts have expressed concern, viewing the military intervention as a setback for democracy on the continent. One Cornell University expert argued that the military’s resolution to the civil society uprising, fueled by genuine citizen grievances, is unwarranted, urging the AU to condemn the takeover and refuse recognition of the new regime. The situation echoes recent youth-led uprisings that have successfully toppled governments elsewhere, such as in Nepal and Bangladesh, highlighting a global trend of youth activism against entrenched socio-economic issues.
Roots of the Uprising
The political crisis was not born in a vacuum but stemmed from deep-seated national frustrations. Madagascar remains one of the world's poorest nations, with a high percentage of its population living below the poverty line. The immediate catalyst for the massive street protests, however, was the recurrent failure of essential services, namely electricity and water supply, which directly impacted the daily lives of citizens, particularly in urban areas. The protests, spearheaded by young Malagasy citizens, quickly broadened their scope to include demands for an end to corruption and greater economic opportunities.
As Colonel Randrianirina prepares for his swearing-in ceremony, the world watches to see if his promised transitional government can deliver the stability and reform that the population has demanded through the streets, or if this marks yet another cycle of political turbulence for the nation. The presence of officials from the High Constitutional Court at the planned ceremony is intended to lend a veneer of legality to the transfer of power, though international recognition remains a critical hurdle for the new leadership.